Re: Booked out Melb XPTs

[jumbojim@my-deja.com]

Your cost estimates are a tad shy.

Fuel, 2000 litres @ 60c /litre (they pay excise) $2400 Crew 2 x drivers
+ 1.5 x PSS + 1.5 x SPA + 3 x PA (No fitters) @ $40 ph (includes super
etc + mileage,weekends & nights) 1 x 8 hr shift ea = $2560

Capital cost (1990) PCs $4m ea TCs av $2m ea = $9,000 per day. You
cannot make 2 trips per day with a single train consistently. It is
physically possible with no other diagrams to make 4 trips in three days
so that works out to be 1.3 trips per day or a capital cost of $6750 per
trip.

Train Maintenance - we'll use MDs numbers which are probably a bit
light and say $3000 per trip
Access, likely to be more than $7000 as there is after all about 500km
of double track.

Total, at least $19150 per trip

Capacity of Train = 350 +/-
Likely load factor = 60%
$per seat to break even $91 which compares to the published fare $96

But, we haven't printed a timetable, or sold a ticket, or advertised the
service or paid the CEOs salary or painted Albury station or handled the
baggage at Cootamundra or cleaned the toilets at Wagga, or figured out
how to fill the seats with people who will actually pay $96. (BTW
Governments only count the concession fare when considering free PTV
rebates, so you need twice as many of them to make a quid)

The service is subsidised. As a commercial investment you would not
consider it in a fit.

So are GSR's. GSR picked up their rolling stock at heavily depreciated
prices so they don't have to generate a high return to pick up an income
on their investment. Note that GSR are not talking of renewing their
fleet only 'doing it up'

GSR receive a subsidy from the NSW taxpayers for the service from Sydney
to Broken Hill.

GSR probably won it by asking for the lowest subsidy.

GSPE is in the same boat. The sums to make money (that is, a return on
the investment) are horrendous. It might become profitable after they go
broke and auction the cars off at a liquidators sale. Until then, if
they say they're making money, someone's subsidising it.

Long distance low-density, low frequency passenger trains are not
profitable.

Regards

JJ


Sent via Deja.com http://www.deja.com/
Share what you know. Learn what you don't.