Re: Booked out Melb XPTs

[mauried@commslab.gov.au (Maurie Daly)]

In article <378B06AD.5BC24A54@zeta.org.au> Don Allitt <nahgfa@zeta.org.au> writes:
>From: Don Allitt <nahgfa@zeta.org.au>
>Subject: Re: Booked out Melb XPTs
>Date: Tue, 13 Jul 1999 19:28:13 +1000

>I am sick and tired of knockers. What about posting your sums on a Sydney /
>Melbourne trip with passenger content.And dont give me that pensioner crap
>the state governments reimburse.Don.


I dont have a view about the profitability / loss of a Melb - Sydney service 
but here are some figures you may wish to consider.

The cost of the service.

Assume a 7 car XPT with 2 X Power Cars .

Fuel 	2000 litres per power car @ 30c /litre (no fuel excise)	$1200
Crew	2 X Drivers + 2 X PSS + 1 Misc
	Misc allows for fitters electricians + snack bar staff
		$30 per hour ,includes superannuation + 
		Rec leave / sick leave 
		1 X 8 hour shift each			$1200

Capital cost of Train + Interest over 20 year life at 10%
Locos $2M each + $1M per car
Total cost $11M over 20 years equals	$4519 per day.
We can make 2 trips per day so capital cost per trip		$2259


Maintenance of Train & locos.
Cleaning of Train & provisioning of snack bar
10% of total capital cost					$3000


Track Access Charge.
(This is the hardest number to estimate due to RACs secret regime)

If we assume an ARTC access charge for the whole journey which
will be low we get.
Flagfall	$3185	+ Rate per GTK	$1930 Total		$5115

However based on what I beleive to be RACs access charging 
the real cost is likely to be closer to $7000.
Lets however use the known ARTC charge.


						Total 	$12774 per Trip.


Income from fares.
To get sufficient revenue from fares to just cover costs we need

a/ For full fare paying customers travelling the whole journey 
we need 133 passengers.

b/ If the train is mainly filled with passengers travelling on 
concession fares which give up to 50% discount we need
anywhere from 200 to 266 passengers.

Based on full single fare of $96 which is the currently published
economy fare.

Capacity of 7 car XPT is 40 seats per car average for 7 cars allowing
for slightly less in buffet car gives 280 seats.
So for this train to break even it needs to be run at a minimum of 47%
capacity for passengers travelling all the way , more if passengers travel
part way.
If the train has a lot of concession fares then we need 95% capacity.


As you can see its marginal but possible.
The single biggest cost is Track Access.

Any comments on these figures welcome or if anyone has more up to date
figures.

cheers
MD