Transrapid's latest story

[David Bromage <dbromage@omni.com.au>]

Forgive the excessive crossposting, but this is relevant to all
newsgroups. Followups set.

Phil Sellars from Transrapid Australia was in Canberra over the weekend
and made another sales pitch. I've made a summary of some of his more
questionable claims. Comments would be welcome.


Wheel on rail technology has peaked. The ICE3 will be limited to 285km/h.

Transrapid was certified in 1991.

   My comment: With the concrete guideway. When was the steel guideway
   certified?

The Hamburg - Berlin line will go ahead, starting contruction in a few
months. A 100km section in the middle of the route will be running for
testing in 2002, with full commercial service in 2005. Transrapid stands
by the estimates of 12-15 million passenger journeys per year. He disputes
that there are only 4 flights per day between the two cities, and that
Germany's two most important cities would not have such a small aircraft
as a Dash-8 flying between them.

The guideway has a life of 80 years. The vehicles have a life of 25-30
years. TGV track has a life of 12-25 years, TGV trains have a life of 8-10
years.

   My comment: The TGV-PSE track and trains are all a bit older than that.
   The track has been there for nearly 20 years, and many of the trains
   have been around since 1980. The box steel girders of the TR guideway
   might last 80 years, but what is the life of the stators?

The Japanese maglev is probably 5 years away from being ready for
commercial operation.

   My comment: They want to test the interactive aerodynamic effects of
   trains closing at 1100km/h before they go into commercial operation.

The Japanese maglev is a much higher capital cost.

   My comment: Any railway in Japan has a higher capital cost than
   elsewhere. Also, the Japanese maglev has to tolerate earthquakes.

There is interest in Transrapid all over the world. Some proposed lines
include:
 Baltimore - Washington DC
 Pitsburgh - Philadelphia
 Orlando - EPCOT
 Atlanta - Chattanooga
 Sacremento - San Francisco - Los Angeles - San Diego
 Los Angeles - Las Vegas
 Rio De Janiro - Sao Paulo - Campinas
 Santiago de Chile - Valparaiso
 Johannesburg - Cape Town
 Moscow - St Petersburg
 Hamburg - Amsterdam
 Berlin - Warsaw
 Berlin - Krakow
 Berlin - Dresden - Prague
 Munich - Vienna (freight only)
 Moscow - airport
 Beijing - airport
 Shanghai - airport
 Shenzhen - Hong Kong
 Kuala Lumpur - Singapore
 Jiddah - Medina/Yanbu
 Riyadh - Dhahran - Jubayl

   My comment: I'll leave this to others to debate.

Transrapid is the only non-US rail technology to have been considered by
the US for passenger transport.

    My comment: ICE, X2000, Talgo, IC3, TGV (Acela), Siemens LIRR locos,
    Adtranz SEPTA cars (built in Australia!), and many more.

The Hamburg - Berlin line was always going to cost DM9 billion. Costs have
never risen.

Transrapid holds more passengers than other trains.

  My comment: Due to the staggeringly small seat pitch.
  1067mm  Qantas business class
  1048mm  Westrail Prospector economy class
  1000mm  Westrail Australind economy class
   976mm  Queensland Rail economy class
   965mm  Ansett international economy class
   956mm  Countrylink XPT economy class
   933mm  NSW double deck interurban (V set)
   927mm  Transrapid first class
   863mm  Ansett domestic economy class
   851mm  Sydney suburban double deck (S set)
   850mm  Transrapid economy class
   800mm  Qantas economy class

Transrapid can carry freight. They are designing a double deck version for
passengers, the freight version of which can carry ISO shipping containers.

   My comment: How big would those tunnels have to be?

Transrapid has given up on the Sydney - Canberra line. It would have cost
A$6.774b (EUR4.24b, US$4.52b), excluding trains. This works out to
A$23.8m/km (EUR14.9m/km, US$25.4m/mile).

   My comment: The total Speedrail TGV total cost is A$3.7 billion,
   including eight TGV Reseau trains. The high speed line will cost
   roughly A$13.6m/km.

Speedrail can't be taken seriously because it was only proposing single
track.

   My comment: The Speedrail high speed line will initially be single
   track, with earthworks for double. The second track would be added as
   part of the extention from Canberra to Melbourne. Sellars then admitted
   that Transrapid would have been partly single track.

Transrapid is still looking at a Sydney - Wollongong line. They will be
able to charge the same fares as CityRail for the 22 minute journey.

   My comment: The distance is stated as 75km and would cost A$2.3 billion
   just for the guideway. An adult single fare is currently $7.20, or
   $8.60 for an off peak return. That's also an average speed of only
   204km/h.

Transrapid is also looking at a Sydney - Newcastle line for the proposed
new airport at Kooragang Island. The fare would be A$40 one way for the
170km journey (33 minutes)

  My comment: That's $4 billion to build the guideway. If they can charge
  CityRail fares to Wollongong, why not Newcastle? It should only be about
  $17. Also, that's an average speed of about 309km/h. You should be able
  to get that from 350km/h running. Transrapid was going to charge about
  70% of the air fare for Sydney and Canberra. Kooragang Island is not
  likely to go ahead as it would affect operations at the nearby
  Williamtown air force base.

Transrapid could run Sydney to Melbourne in 3 hours.

  My comment: The VFT consortium first proposed 3 hours to Melbourne in
  1986 with a TGV running at 350km/h.

Transrapid says there is interest in lines from Melbourne to Geelong and
Melbourne to Bendigo.

  My comment: Does the Department of Infrastructure know this, and have
  they told the bidders for V/Line Passenger? 

A Transrapid could run Melbourne to Geelong in 20 minutes.

  My comment: I've done it in 46.5 minutes behind a steam loco (two
  actually, R707-R761 with drivers Helsby and Evans in charge). You don't
  need a maglev to reach Geelong in 20 minutes, a 200km/h tilt train could
  do it.

Let the debate commence.

Cheers
David