Re: Meeting with Speedrail

["David & Jan Winter" <winterd@icenet.com.au>]

Dear Christian

You seem to be an apologist for mag lev.

It's a nice technology. Like so many others, it does not do that much more
than other technologies for which there is an installed base, that it can be
justified as an investment. Usually, as you no doubt know, projects are
justified on incremental (marginal) cost terms.

However, get a greenfields site or saturated existing system, then the
economics can work for a new technology. That's why the TGV got a look in at
all in France.

So, for a fast link to Canberra, 1435mm gauge rail has one slight edge -
existing TGVs and derivatives with 1500v capability (e.g. EuroStar) could
easily run on existing track in Sydney with appropriate safety and
communications apparatus. Your technology needs new infrastructure all the
way from origin to destination. No easy way to extend the odd service to
Newcastle, or include another town (for rail, read Wollongong, for you, read
say Mittagong) during a major event there, etc.

BUT, once you have an infrastructure base, then the incremental/marginal
cost method of investment appraisal becomes valid.

The ONLY route I would see for TR in Australia, at least to get a foothold,
would be a direct cross-harbour route from Sydney CBD (if not parallelling
the NSR from Sydney International Airport) via the Peninsula (e.g. Cremorne)
and Northern Beaches then over/under Brisbane Water to the Central Coast. If
you could get finance for that, I think you'd be on a winner! This is not a
high-speed route (too short, and too many stations), but it could be the
nucleus of an eastern seaboard route spine if you can prove it out.

My message is that you've got to start somewhere, and that somewhere needs
to satisfy the general conditions:

a. no existing infrastructure; or
b. existing infrastructure saturated

As regards a link to Canberra, I for one would prefer to see a high speed
route developed right along the coast from north of Newcastle (Forster,
Tuncurry?) right through Nowra before climbing inland to Goulburn and
Canberra. I see the greatest community and commercial benefit arising from
such a development, but accept that cost minimisation favours the shortest
line of route to Macarthur or thereabouts.

DW