Capacity to handle humungous crowds

[G.Lambert@unsw.edu.au (Geoff Lambert)]

There has been a bit of argy-bargy in the SMH recently about the size
of the crowd at the Mardi Gras, with the estimate of 700,000 being
challenged by Fred Nile, on the basis of its physical impossibility.
Such a crowd would have placed an unprecendented (?) burden on mass
transport.  I loathe Fred and wish the Mardi Gras the best of luck,
but must say I agree with his argument about crowd size and I've
always questioned crowd figures like this, being myself an experienced
organiser of street rallies.  Monday's SMH asserted that, on average,
500,000 people visit the CBD on a Saturday night (this was a story
about hooliganism and police presence).  This figure also seems
suspect.  As does the million people who reputedly lined the harbour
to watch the fireworks (I counted only 1500 at North Head).  This
represents one in three Sydney-ites.

I wonder what the public transport stats have to say about the level
of crowds and people-movement for big events in Sydney.  

A few points that might be helpful

· Weekday rail traffic is roughly 1 million return journeys, say
500,000 people (270 million per year, incl. Sat/Sun).  It seems to
stretch the system

· The Royal Show attracts about 1 million people (max of 100,000 per
day) and this just about seems to bust the bus system.  Keenan's tram
books have some useful stats and pictures on handling Show and SCG
crowds.

· A Manly ferry carries about 1200 crush load.  Even if only 1% of
people who went to the fireworks used the ferries from Manly, this
would mean 8 crush loads returning- but there weren't even that many
ferries and they weren't all crush loads, either.

· The Pope attracted 100,000 to 200,000 people (estimates vary) in
1986 and the SRA threw on a whole special timetable for the event.

· A genuine 150,000 people took part in the Vietnam Moratorium in
Melbourne- this filled the Teasury Gardens, plus Bourke St from Spring
to Queen St, plus all side streets for one block each way.  It also
nearly crippled the trams, trains and buses (apart from blocking the
streets, that is).

· The projected total loads and peak rates for the Y2K games seem far
smaller than any of the above events have claimed as crowd levels, yet
they raise all sorts of qualms about the ability of the system to
cope.

What sort of peak crowds can be carried by Sydney's public transport
system?.  
Passengers per hour on each mode?, 
Total lift per day?  
Does anyone have reliable records of what has actually been achieved
by the system at any of the above events?

Geoff Lambert.