Rail privatizations.

[mauried@tpg.com.au (Maurie Daly)]

Fairly recently, but before it was known that Freightcorp was to be
privatised , its CEO indicated that he thought that there was room in
Australia for only two interstate rail companies ,and that FC was
going to be one of them.

We now find that its very likely that we will end up with not two ,
but at least 7 private rail companies.

ASR
ATN 
Austrac
FA
A privatised FC 
A privatised NRC
A combination of the two above
A privatised Westrail

This also doesnt even count smaller players like Silverton and NRR or
Great Northern.

One would also expect that at some stage in the future ,that QR will
enter the interstate freight business.

Since rail privatization started there hasnt been any shift from road
back to rail, instead all that has happened is that all the above
companies are simply competing against each other for a share of a
rapidly dwindling cake.
It seems to me that all cant survive ,and that if someone buys both FC
and NRC for a huge price ,then they will be the first to fall.
The survivors will be those companies with the least debts,and the
more flexible loco fleets .
You would have to rate the likely winners as coming from ATN,ASR and
FA.

Commenst ??

MD