VFT/VHST - third time lucky?

[dbromage@fang.omni.com.au (David Bromage)]

The Government has now proposed a wider study for a high speed network
from Melbourne to Brisbane. Since the Treasurer has said they will have to
consider all proposals, this could mean a new call for experssions of
interest. I've made up a list of those who could be considered serious
bidders.


Alstom

They won't give up just yet, even if Leighton does. Possibly with
something cheaper, such as the 320km/h AGV. May still involve Qantas.

 Pros: Proven track record of TGVs over 20 years. Lots of exports.
 Cons: Already failed twice. AGV is still vapourware.


Adtranz

Had a very strong bid last time with a low cost incremental approach. May
be through Bombadier. Diesel option is still available. May include
Countrylink again, and possibly Ansett. Probably will not include Virgin
this time!

 Pros: Strong background in tilt trains. Improved their suspension based
  on the 1995 X2000 tests in NSW. Experience with infrastructure. Good
  record of following through on promised vapourware.
 Cons: Vapourware is still vapourware. May involve a state government.


Bombadier

Bombadier may put in a parallel bid to Adtranz, possibly a "Super Acela".

 Pros: Bombadier has access to Alstom and Adtranz technology.
 Cons: Acela design compromised by government interference.


Siemens

ICE3, or a future tilting variant, would have a lot of promise. They were
stalled in the last bid after the scope of the project was expanded beyond
Canberra, hence the ICT was no longer suitable.

 Pros: Experience with integrated packages of infrastructure and
  rollingstock. 
 Cons: Spot welded aluminium construction is not very strong in the 
  event of a collision. Several failed export bids. The Fiat tilting 
  system is not suitable for Australia.


Fiat/Goninan

Fiat has some experience with the Pendolino, which has been relatively
successful. May involve Virgin who have bought Pendolinos.

 Pros: Attractive price. Recent export orders to the UK.
 Cons: Wrong tilt mechanism for Australia unless the track is perfect. No
  experience with infrastructure.


Talgo-Medina

Talgo has moved from passive to active tilting since the last bid. This is
a lot more promising than the previous bid. Teamed up with Adtranz for the
tilt mechanism in the Talgo 350. Gives Adtranz a third finger in the pie.

 Pros: Talgos have been around as long as Shinkansen. 350km/h tilting
  allows for slightly cheaper infrastructure. Can be diesel hauled at
  lower speeds, allowing for route flexibility beyond the high speed line.
 Cons: Ugly! Only relatively recent experience in infrastructure. Limited
  export experience.


Shinkansen

Kawasaki and Hitachi have finally decided to push for exports of
Shinkansen technology. JNR was part of VFT in the early days, but pulled
out when TGV was put forward. The 350km/h Shinkansen 900 fits the load
gauge.

 Pros: Nearly 40 years of experience in high speed trains. No fatalities.
  Recent export order to Taiwan.
 Cons: No actual export experience yet.


Transrapid

The will undoubtedly make another bid. Gives Siemens a second finger in
the pie.

 Pros: They say it goes faster.
 Cons: Cost. Hamburg - Berlin project recently abandoned at a more
  advanced stage than Speedrail. No export orders.


EDI-Walkers/Hitachi/QR

I wouldn't be surprised if they put in a bid for a souped up version of
the tilt train.

 Pros: The thing actually runs in Australia. Guarenteed local construction.
  Experience with infrastructure.
 Cons: Has not been scaled up to standard gauge. Involves a state government.


Cheers
David