Re: good news for The Overland

[Chris Brownbill <cbrnbill@enternet.com.au>]

These Overland figures DO NOT ADD UP!

GSR Claim 72,000 people use the Overland per year, and that 85,000 per year is
the break-even mark.  The shortfall is therefore 13,000 per year.

So lets figure out by how much GSR are short financially then.  Assuming they
got the extra 13,000 passengers, and every one of them was travelling the full
length of the line, and assuming half of those extra 13,000 was a full fare
paying adult first class sleeping berth passenger Westbound paying the top $199
one-way fare, and the other half first class seat Eastbound (no sleepers
Eastbound) paying $99 that would increase GSR's takings by 6,500x$199 +
$6,500X$99 = $1.94mill.  This is clearly exaggerated because nowhere near all
the passengers are first class nor full fare paying, nor do all travellers
travel the full distance.  (If everyone paid full Economy fare of $64 it would
be only $832,000).  This figure is only the gross takings - the nett retained
income would be less once you factor in the increased costs of providing the
service - even if it is only increased carriage maintenance, fuel costs,
cleaning, laundry, ticketing overheads etc.

To plug this shortfall for half a year, the Vic and SA Governments are
subsidising GSR to the tune of $1,500,000, ie $3,000,000 per year.

So GSR claim that to break even they need somewhere between $832,000 and 
$1.94mill per year, but the Governments are funding them at a rate of $3mill per
year.  In addition to this subsidy, the new timetable will allow GSR to further
cut costs by reducing its fleet size because only one set will now be required. 
Sounds like they're getting a good deal here.

Another angle on this is that at the rate of 4 Overlands per week each way -
that gives 8 trips per week or 8x52 = 416 trains per year.  That gives an
average of 173 passengers per trip.  To achieve GSR's claimed break-even point,
they need to increase this by a further 31 to 204 per trip. 

If however GSRs figures are true, this is heartening because getting an extra 31
travellers 8 times a week wouldn't seem to be a particularly tough task - only a
modestly full busload.  Certainly within a bulls roar, and way better than the
bad old days of the chronic loss-making railways of the 1970's with pitifully
low cost-recovery rates.



Lachlan Smith wrote:
> 
> The Overland may yet survive -
> 
> (This article on ABC site today)
> 
> Timetables will be changed for Overland
> 
> The Overland train service to Melbourne is to become a daylight trip.
> 
> Great Southern Railway is trialling a new schedule with more than
> $1.5-million in assistance from the South Australian and Victorian
> governments.
> 
> Chief Executive, Stephen Bradford, says track improvements mean that the
> trip has been reduced to 10.5 hours, allowing the same train to travel to
> Melbourne during the day and to make the return trip overnight.
> 
> Mr Bradford says the train will now travel four times a week, in an effort
> to increase patronage to the break-even mark of 85,000 people a year.
> 
> "At present, 72.000 people use the Overland, and we're hoping the day train
> out of Adelaide will result in that increasing."
> 
> "Our objective is, with rising fuel prices, to get people off the roads and
> out of buses and enjoy rail going into Melbourne, and vice versa."
> 
> Lachlan Smith