Countrylink in (even more) trouble.

["Dave Proctor" <daproc@spambait.ozemail.com.au>]

In both of today's Sydney papers it was announced that Impulse will have
over 1000 fares at $39 each between Sydney and Brisbane, for travel between
now and the middle of April (just before Easter school hols, I would
presume). Now 1000 seats is not all that many in the grand scheme of things,
but you can bet your life that Virgin Blue, Qantas and Ansett will follow
suit with something similiar, and with a much greater quantity.

With Qantas increasing domestic capacity via the introduction of new
767-336's obtained from parent British Airways, and soon to be increased
even further with A330's, things look even bleaker on the intercapital
market for an operator like Countrylink, which provides merely a basic
service and does not seek to make an "experience" of the journey like QR and
GSR try to do (i.e., make the holiday start when you board the train, rather
than when you get off it at the other end).

Qantas stated aim is to use the increased capacity offered by the new
aircraft to greatly boost their market share - and since Virgin Blue and
Impulse are seeking to grow the market, rather than capture traffic from
Ansett and Qantas (although that would be nice and they won't knock it
back), such "market growth" can only come from people who would not have
otherwise travelled, or from other modes, such as coach and train
passengers.

So where does this leave Countrylink on the intercapital market? Even
pensioners might think about paying $40 for a flight from Sydney to
Brisbane, as against something like $20 that Countrylink wants to charge a
pensioner using a voucher.

Would it be inconceivable that Countrylink be left operating intra-state NSW
services, with an operator like GSR taking over for the BNE-SYD-MEL
corridor? From what I have seen at Keswick, they have plenty of rolling
stock, although I have no idea of the condition of the majority of it. Any
thoughts as to how this could be handled?

Dave